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Fundamentals investing
Happy New Year: 10/01/2022
15.47% on Nat Gas.
25/10/2021 17.46% Move on Nat GAS.
Inflation (as forecast below) Rising.
1. Hyper about inflation:
The Central Bank Covid recovery stimulus in March 2020, is the largest in size and duration in history.
Its products: 3 1/2 /4 asset classes are in a bubble at the same time, (Housing, Bonds, Stocks and 1/2 Commodities).
This is producing inflation FAR HIGHER than the Central Banks target of 2%.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 4.1% in 2021 (Double the desirable rate!) which is levels not seen since 1993!
Central Banks, say don't worry its 'transitory', but current data continues to overshoot. Which creates two fundamental investing opporunities:
A. As inflation continues to spiral upwards, and the central banks begin unwinding their asset purchases, (so they aren't caught holding this biggest assembly of overpriced assets before a crash), and markets correct.
Using the Dow Jones Index (DJI) as an indictator (as well as investment bank monitor market reports): when DJI volatility, which normally ranges from 200-500 pips per day, spikes to 1,000 pips. Then you know there's going to be a correction.
As all asset classes are highly correlated, and 3.5/4 are in a bubble, said collapse could rivial 1929. DJI I forecast, will collapse by c60.00% market collapse by 2023. See Analysis.
B. Whilst Inflation continues to spiral, and the risk of 1933 Germany hyperinflation comes into view, consumers will still need goods, whatever the price, we still need oil, copper (for electricity), wheat (for bread) etc. So, I'm buying the last asset class which is half way in a bubble: commodities, to hedge against inflation. With oil's growth potential: 68.75%-100.48%. See Analysis.
The most important facet to investing, is as Warren Buffett says, 'be approximately right, than approximately wrong'.
2. Trade in To Help Out +48.00% m/m
Lockdown October 2020-Novemeber 2020
2. With Lockdown harships ravaging good, hard working people, I offered up my trading set ups for a one month basis, to help family friends, supplement there income through trading, as a one off.
Fundamentally, there were strong trends, and volatility picked up during the end of Octover, which made for some high reward: risk ratio's trading the only climatic set ups (when price violates the channel as a false breakout, trade ONLY against the direction of the breakout), for a big swing back into the channel, and the next support/resistance the other side of the channel.
i. The best performer, due to its daily volatiltiy range being close to or higher than my key level 400. Was the Dow Jones Index.
Here ATR5D ranged between 325-527, meaning winning trades on a1/3 ATR5D stop loss (+slippage) made returns close to 3:1.
ii.GBPUSD continued its V Shaped recovery, matching the fundamental analysis.
iii. Following DJI, DAX volatility remained high enough to trade, peaking at the end of the October at 355 ATR5D, here my key level is 300, meaning a c100 pip stop loss, can make close to a 3:1 R/R.
I was very pleased my efforts helped famaly friends, during a tough time, and the pilot was a success.
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